SAE International Risk vs. Impact Analysis Applied to Aeronautical Suppliers: From Qualitative to Quantitative Approach 2011-01-2657

This paper presents a model of semi-quantitative analysis for risks and their associated impact caused by aeronautical suppliers in charge of specific work-packages (WP). Considering that many approaches to supply chain risk evaluation are qualitative (consequently subjective) and restricted to few functional areas of the supplier, the paper defines fifteen areas of functionality (production, finance, quality human resources etc.) for the supplying company. It then identifies specific risks for each area and measures them through predictive indicators. Therefore, taking in account the WP characteristics (size, technology, delivery and quality constraints, etc.), drivers are defined to evaluate the impact associated with each risk. The model is applied to the case of a supplier delivering structural parts. Finally, contingency actions to overcome the identified risks are illustrated and discussed.